CINBengals
-
20
TBD
Lumen Field
64°F
7 mph
21
SEASeahawks
-
TBD
Lumen Field
64°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
14
0
3
20
Seahawks
0
14
0
7
21
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
429
232
Total Plays
70
49
Yards / Play
6.1
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.05
Passing Yards
395
160
Comp/Att
35/51(69%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.11
Rushing Yards
34
72
Rush Attempts
14
25
Yards / Rush
2.4
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.61
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
18
6
Rushing 1st downs
1
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-6.65
-0.67
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-23
-35
Sack EPA
-10.87
-6.81
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
57
55
Penalty EPA
-7.24
-8.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+185
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+88.5
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
-7.9
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
26
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
25
22
EPA
EPA / Play
25
19
EPA / Pass
29
18
EPA / Rush
22
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
9
Interceptions / Game
23
9
Fumbles / Game
27
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
29
23
Seahawks Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
25
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
6
32
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
7
29
EPA / Rush
19
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
1
21
Fumbles / Game
31
25
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
7
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
8-2
O/U