CINBengals
6-2
18
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
64°F
4 mph
12
PITSteelers
6-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
64°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
6
0
6
6
18
Steelers
3
6
0
3
12
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
218
226
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
3.5
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.17
Passing Yards
157
146
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.48
Rushing Yards
61
80
Rush Attempts
29
18
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
29%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.35
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-21
-28
Sack EPA
-3.83
-5.81
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
87
50
Penalty EPA
-4.92
-4.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+189
Home nfelo
1,636
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.3
Home QB Adjustment
+19.1
Away QB Adjustment
+20.4
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.4
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
21
31
Rushing Yards / Game
7
5
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
12
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
2
Interceptions / Game
8
25
Fumbles / Game
21
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
30
RZ Efficiency
21
6
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
7
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8
EPA
EPA / Play
7
7
EPA / Pass
10
10
EPA / Rush
14
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
22
Interceptions / Game
10
11
Fumbles / Game
19
32
Turnover EPA / Game
13
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
26
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
Steelers
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-4-2
O/U