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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ steelers week 14, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
2-10
7
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
8 mph
23
PITSteelers
9-3
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
0
0
0
7
Steelers
0
4
3
4
11

Spread

PIT logo
-8.5

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
190
354
Total Plays
49
64
Yards / Play
3.9
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.04
Passing Yards
156
231
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.49
+0.09
Rushing Yards
34
123
Rush Attempts
14
27
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-18.78
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-22
-27
Sack EPA
-3.93
-6.61
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
--
89
Penalty EPA
--
-8.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model78.9%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+263
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+47.0
Home QB Adjustment
+47.0
Away QB Adjustment
-0.0
Market Regression
+3.8
Final Difference
228.8
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Value
Ptile
09/26
-4.3
21
10/03
5.0
82
10/10
-1.7
39
10/24
9.9
98
10/31
-1.9
37
11/08
-1.0
43
11/14
-0.5
46
11/21
0.0
49
11/25
-9.2
5
12/05
1.6
58
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+47.0
Value
Ptile
12/27
-3.6
27
01/03
3.9
75
10/17
4.3
77
10/24
3.8
75
10/31
-4.5
20
11/08
-1.1
42
11/14
2.9
69
11/21
11.8
99
11/28
-2.7
31
12/05
-2.0
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bengals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
20
2
Passing Yards / Game
24
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
1

EPA

EPA / Play
19
2
EPA / Pass
17
4
EPA / Rush
31
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
8
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
5
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Steelers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
12
24
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
10
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
19

EPA

EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
9
20
EPA / Rush
10
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
6
14
Fumbles / Game
18
17
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
13
4th Down Efficiency
27
3
RZ Efficiency
15
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
13
W
W
U
10/03
-3
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
O
10/24
-7
L
L
O
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/14
-6
L
W
U
11/21
-18
L
L
O
11/25
-16
L
L
U
12/05
-4
L
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
25
W
W
O
10/03
-3
L
L
U
10/17
18
W
W
O
10/24
1
W
L
O
10/31
-10
L
L
U
11/08
6
W
W
O
11/14
-13
L
L
O
11/21
32
W
W
U
11/28
3
W
L
U
12/05
3
W
W
U