CINBengals
9-4
20
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
26°F
20 mph
30
PITSteelers
5-8
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
26°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
0
13
20
Steelers
15
6
3
0
24
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
290
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
4.1
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.06
Passing Yards
222
184
Comp/Att
25/45(56%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.45
Rushing Yards
57
106
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.23
-1.97
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-1.49
-1.33
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
50
25
Penalty EPA
-4.89
-2.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-34
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+23.4
Away QB Adjustment
+14.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
9
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
21
EPA
EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
14
10
EPA / Rush
20
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
14
Interceptions / Game
26
29
Fumbles / Game
24
16
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
1
19
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
14
1
Rushing Yards / Game
27
8
EPA
EPA / Play
18
3
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
29
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
29
Interceptions / Game
13
8
Fumbles / Game
17
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
2
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
20
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U