CINBengals
8-6
13
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
35°F
10 mph
10
PITSteelers
7-7
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
35°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
1
3
0
3
7
Steelers
0
7
3
0
10
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
280
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
4.2
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.26
Passing Yards
253
185
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
14/28(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.42
Rushing Yards
14
95
Rush Attempts
16
31
Yards / Rush
0.9
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
15
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
--
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
27%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.17
-7.71
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-25
-35
Sack EPA
-4.10
-7.97
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
55
63
Penalty EPA
-7.06
-6.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.9
Home QB Adjustment
+20.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.4
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
5
Yards / Game
23
1
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2
EPA
EPA / Play
17
7
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
8
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
8
Yards / Game
21
8
Passing Yards / Game
10
8
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14
EPA
EPA / Play
18
4
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
29
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
7
Interceptions / Game
12
17
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
13
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
20
7
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U