CINBengals
8-6
11
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
49°F
5 mph
34
PITSteelers
7-7
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
49°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
0
11
0
11
Steelers
7
17
7
3
34
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
397
Total Plays
62
58
Yards / Play
6.0
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.20
Passing Yards
311
284
Comp/Att
28/43(65%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
10.5
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.31
Rushing Yards
59
113
Rush Attempts
16
30
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.34
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.93
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-6
Sack EPA
-5.01
-1.72
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-1.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
Steelers+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+6
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,564
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
-20.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+69.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-68.7
Market Regression
-29.3
Final Difference
-29.3
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Browning
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-68.7
M. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
8
Yards / Game
23
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
21
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
15
10
EPA / Rush
15
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
19
13
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
25
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
21
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
10
6
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
20
Yards / Game
25
31
Passing Yards / Game
26
30
Rushing Yards / Game
11
26
EPA
EPA / Play
25
26
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
20
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
8
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
25
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U