CINBengals
8-8
19
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
19°F
10 mph
17
PITSteelers
10-6
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
19°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
10
3
3
3
19
Steelers
0
7
0
10
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
193
Total Plays
71
58
Yards / Play
4.4
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.00
Passing Yards
246
119
Comp/Att
37/46(80%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.17
Rushing Yards
68
74
Rush Attempts
21
23
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.05
+4.10
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-31
-29
Sack EPA
-6.80
-4.01
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
25
20
Penalty EPA
-6.44
-2.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-45
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+34.7
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.0
Away QB Adjustment
+38.4
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+38.4
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
7
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
1
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11
EPA
EPA / Play
6
8
EPA / Pass
5
16
EPA / Rush
14
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
8
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
27
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
28
RZ Efficiency
5
13
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
12
19
EPA
EPA / Play
16
28
EPA / Pass
19
17
EPA / Rush
28
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
10
Interceptions / Game
3
9
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
31
19
RZ Efficiency
29
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U