CINBengals
6-3
22
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
013
HOUTexans
5-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
0
7
6
20
Texans
0
3
4
0
7
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
248
Total Plays
78
65
Yards / Play
4.8
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
184
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
21/45(47%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.29
Rushing Yards
139
64
Rush Attempts
43
19
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
55%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
11
4
3rd Down Attempts
20
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.28
-5.51
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-1.41
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
60
15
Penalty EPA
-7.11
-2.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model55.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+11
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.8
Home QB Adjustment
-27.5
Away QB Adjustment
-7.7
Market Regression
+6.8
Final Difference
36.0
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
R. Mallett
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-27.5
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
6
Yards / Game
18
16
Passing Yards / Game
31
23
Rushing Yards / Game
6
9
EPA
EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
23
2
EPA / Rush
3
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
27
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
18
6
Turnover EPA / Game
10
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
10
4
Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
16
23
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
5
20
EPA
EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
14
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
30
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
16
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
7
4th Down Efficiency
6
22
RZ Efficiency
15
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-3-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U