nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ texans week 16, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CIN logo
CINBengals
5-8
10
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
12
HOUTexans
8-6
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
0
7
10
Texans
0
0
3
9
12

Spread

CIN logo
+3

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
294
250
Total Plays
63
57
Yards / Play
4.7
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.15
Passing Yards
244
155
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.30
Rushing Yards
50
95
Rush Attempts
19
24
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
44%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.97
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-24
-21
Sack EPA
-5.20
-5.78
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model49.7%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.0%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-62
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+68.7
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-36.1
Home QB Adjustment
-35.4
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
+12.5
Final Difference
-1.8
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
10/09
3.3
74
10/16
4.3
80
10/23
1.7
62
10/30
1.8
63
11/14
-4.0
20
11/20
-2.4
30
11/27
-1.3
39
12/04
7.9
92
12/11
-1.1
40
12/18
-2.4
31
T. Savage headshot

T. Savage

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-35.4
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Bengals logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
12
1
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
13
11

EPA

EPA / Play
10
3
EPA / Pass
12
4
EPA / Rush
5
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
7
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
18
16
Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Texans logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
21

EPA

EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
29
14
EPA / Rush
26
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
25
4
Fumbles / Game
10
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
16
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
31
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-14
L
L
U
10/16
-18
L
L
O
10/23
14
W
W
O
10/30
0
T
L
O
11/14
-1
L
L
U
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/27
-5
L
L
U
12/04
18
W
W
O
12/11
13
W
W
U
12/18
-4
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-18
L
L
O
10/16
3
W
P
O
10/24
-18
L
L
U
10/30
7
W
W
U
11/13
3
W
W
O
11/21
-7
L
L
O
11/27
-8
L
L
U
12/04
-8
L
L
U
12/11
5
W
W
U
12/18
1
W
L
O