CINBengals
5-8
10
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
012
HOUTexans
8-6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
0
7
10
Texans
0
0
3
9
12
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
294
250
Total Plays
63
57
Yards / Play
4.7
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.15
Passing Yards
244
155
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.30
Rushing Yards
50
95
Rush Attempts
19
24
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
44%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.97
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-24
-21
Sack EPA
-5.20
-5.78
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model49.6%
Spread Pick
Bengals+3.0
Expected Value
+9.0%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-64
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+67.8
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-36.1
Home QB Adjustment
-35.4
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
+12.5
Final Difference
-2.4
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
T. Savage
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-35.4
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
12
1
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
13
11
EPA
EPA / Play
10
3
EPA / Pass
12
4
EPA / Rush
5
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
7
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
18
16
Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
21
EPA
EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
29
14
EPA / Rush
26
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
25
4
Fumbles / Game
10
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
16
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
31
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-6-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U