CINBengals
10-6
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
019
HOUTexans
12-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
1
3
3
7
Texans
3
6
7
3
19
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
198
420
Total Plays
48
77
Yards / Play
4.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.06
Passing Yards
118
--
Comp/Att
14/30(47%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.57
-0.05
Rushing Yards
80
158
Rush Attempts
16
39
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
0%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
--
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.44
-7.00
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-2.12
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
51
55
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-7.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+118
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.3
Home QB Adjustment
-12.4
Away QB Adjustment
-14.7
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
9
Yards / Game
23
7
Passing Yards / Game
22
26
Rushing Yards / Game
18
6
EPA
EPA / Play
17
6
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
8
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
18
8
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
18
10
Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
20
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
14
EPA
EPA / Play
11
4
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
14
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
1
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U