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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ texans week 18, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
10-6
13
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
19
HOUTexans
12-4
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
1
3
3
7
Texans
3
6
7
3
19

Spread

HOU logo
-4

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
198
420
Total Plays
48
77
Yards / Play
4.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.06
Passing Yards
118
--
Comp/Att
14/30(47%)
29/38(76%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.57
-0.05
Rushing Yards
80
158
Rush Attempts
16
39
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
0%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
--
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.44
-7.00
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-2.12
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
51
55
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-7.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.3
Home QB Adjustment
-12.4
Away QB Adjustment
-14.7
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
Value
Ptile
10/21
-4.2
23
11/04
-1.7
38
11/11
6.9
90
11/18
4.5
79
11/25
-0.1
49
12/02
-0.6
46
12/09
-6.2
12
12/13
-7.4
8
12/23
-7.6
7
12/30
-2.9
31
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
Value
Ptile
10/21
3.0
69
11/04
2.9
68
11/11
-6.1
12
11/18
14.3
99
11/22
-0.6
46
12/02
2.2
63
12/10
-4.0
25
12/16
1.2
57
12/23
-5.5
15
12/30
-5.7
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Texans Defense
Bengals logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
13
9
Yards / Game
23
7
Passing Yards / Game
22
26
Rushing Yards / Game
18
6

EPA

EPA / Play
17
6
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
8
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
18
8
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
18
10
Texans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Texans logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
20
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
14

EPA

EPA / Play
11
4
EPA / Pass
9
3
EPA / Rush
14
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
1
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
14
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
-7
L
L
U
11/04
-8
L
L
O
11/11
18
W
W
U
11/18
22
W
W
U
11/25
24
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
U
12/09
-1
L
L
U
12/13
21
W
W
O
12/23
3
W
W
U
12/30
6
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
30
W
W
O
11/04
12
W
W
U
11/11
7
W
W
U
11/18
6
W
L
O
11/22
3
W
L
O
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/10
-28
L
L
O
12/16
12
W
W
U
12/23
-17
L
L
U
12/30
-12
L
L
U