CINBengals
5-2
24
TBD
Nissan Stadium
68°F
13 mph
17
TENTitans
4-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
68°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
7
10
24
Titans
3
14
0
0
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
328
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
4.6
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.03
Passing Yards
210
250
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.02
Rushing Yards
109
78
Rush Attempts
30
20
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.74
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-22
Sack EPA
-1.28
-2.57
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
87
100
Penalty EPA
-8.44
-8.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.1
Away QB Adjustment
-2.2
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
8
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
19
13
Rushing Yards / Game
21
22
EPA
EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
21
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
19
24
Fumbles / Game
4
4
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
25
10
Titans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
12
Yards / Game
17
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
32
12
EPA
EPA / Play
16
10
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
28
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
27
Interceptions / Game
13
29
Fumbles / Game
12
9
Turnover EPA / Game
19
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
14
4th Down Efficiency
1
8
RZ Efficiency
5
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
9-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U