CINBengals
3-5
20
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
4 mph
24
TENTitans
5-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
6
7
0
7
20
Titans
7
10
0
7
24
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
416
Total Plays
50
84
Yards / Play
6.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.06
Passing Yards
255
236
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
25/44(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.25
Rushing Yards
53
180
Rush Attempts
14
36
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.43
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
27
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
10%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-9.60
-10.64
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-10
-28
Sack EPA
-4.38
-5.95
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
84
55
Penalty EPA
-12.48
-6.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+65.7
Base HFA
+56.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+25.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.3
Away QB Adjustment
-12.7
Market Regression
-14.9
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-12.7
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
32
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
29
Rushing Yards / Game
31
4
EPA
EPA / Play
26
23
EPA / Pass
21
23
EPA / Rush
28
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
13
23
Fumbles / Game
21
17
Turnover EPA / Game
12
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
18
4th Down Efficiency
21
26
RZ Efficiency
11
17
Titans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
17
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
23
8
Rushing Yards / Game
9
30
EPA
EPA / Play
18
14
EPA / Pass
24
10
EPA / Rush
10
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
16
RZ Efficiency
16
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U