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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ bengals week 4, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BUF logo
BUFBills
3-0
20
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
13 mph
23
CINBengals
1-2
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
11
0
3
14
Bengals
3
0
10
10
23

Spread

CIN logo
+3

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
273
458
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
4.9
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.02
Passing Yards
190
287
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
18/36(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.19
Rushing Yards
83
171
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
12
25
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
29%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.48
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-11
Sack EPA
-1.55
-3.20
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
26
--
Penalty EPA
-2.35
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-18
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-32.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.8
Away QB Adjustment
+23.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-57.9
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+23.9
Value
Ptile
11/14
-2.5
32
11/21
6.0
87
11/28
-2.0
36
12/05
-2.7
30
12/12
1.8
60
12/19
2.0
62
12/26
-8.4
6
09/11
6.5
88
09/18
6.7
89
09/25
3.9
76
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
Value
Ptile
09/11
-4.3
23
09/18
5.4
84
09/25
-6.9
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Bills logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
14
12

EPA

EPA / Play
17
10
EPA / Pass
19
11
EPA / Rush
6
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
27
Interceptions / Game
31
29
Fumbles / Game
2
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
11
29
Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Bengals logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
19
30
Yards / Game
22
25
Passing Yards / Game
19
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
28

EPA

EPA / Play
19
26
EPA / Pass
18
21
EPA / Rush
21
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
32
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
25
31
RZ Efficiency
25
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
18
W
W
O
11/28
-3
L
W
U
12/05
-24
L
L
O
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/19
3
W
W
U
12/26
-31
L
L
U
01/02
-31
L
L
O
09/11
34
W
W
O
09/18
3
W
L
O
09/25
3
W
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-18
L
L
O
11/25
-16
L
L
U
12/05
-4
L
W
O
12/12
-16
L
L
U
12/19
2
W
W
U
12/26
14
W
W
O
01/02
-6
L
W
U
09/11
10
W
W
O
09/18
-2
L
W
O
09/25
-5
L
L
U