BUFBills
3-0
20
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
13 mph
23
CINBengals
1-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
11
0
3
14
Bengals
3
0
10
10
23
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
273
458
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
4.9
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.02
Passing Yards
190
287
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
18/36(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.19
Rushing Yards
83
171
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
25
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
29%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.48
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-11
Sack EPA
-1.55
-3.20
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
26
--
Penalty EPA
-2.35
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-14
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-32.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.8
Away QB Adjustment
+23.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-57.2
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+23.9
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
14
12
EPA
EPA / Play
17
10
EPA / Pass
19
11
EPA / Rush
6
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
27
Interceptions / Game
31
29
Fumbles / Game
2
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
11
29
Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
30
Yards / Game
22
25
Passing Yards / Game
19
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
28
EPA
EPA / Play
19
26
EPA / Pass
18
21
EPA / Rush
21
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
32
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
25
31
RZ Efficiency
25
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U