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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ bengals week 5, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
3-1
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
10 mph
20
CINBengals
1-3
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
7
3
3
16
Bengals
7
3
0
10
20

Spread

CIN logo
-3

Total

UNDER
39

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
221
388
Total Plays
67
64
Yards / Play
3.3
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.11
Passing Yards
139
323
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.02
Rushing Yards
82
65
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.57
-14.18
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-27
-5
Sack EPA
-5.31
-1.02
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
71
71
Penalty EPA
-4.02
-8.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Value
Ptile
11/20
-3.0
26
11/27
-1.4
37
12/04
-4.9
15
12/11
-4.2
18
12/18
2.0
64
12/24
9.2
96
09/10
0.2
53
09/17
-1.4
42
09/24
1.1
60
10/01
-3.4
28
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Value
Ptile
11/27
-1.3
39
12/04
7.9
92
12/11
-1.1
40
12/18
-2.4
31
12/24
-0.7
43
01/01
0.3
51
09/10
-15.7
0
09/14
-2.9
34
09/24
0.7
57
10/01
8.6
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Bills logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
27
17
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
29
8
Rushing Yards / Game
5
30

EPA

EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
22
10
EPA / Rush
13
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
30
16
RZ Efficiency
22
5
Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Bengals logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
32
21
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29

EPA

EPA / Play
26
19
EPA / Pass
21
15
EPA / Rush
28
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
9
Interceptions / Game
13
7
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
24
RZ Efficiency
11
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
7
W
L
O
12/04
-14
L
L
O
12/11
-7
L
L
O
12/18
20
W
W
O
12/24
-3
L
L
O
01/01
-20
L
L
U
09/10
9
W
W
U
09/17
-6
L
W
U
09/24
10
W
W
O
10/01
6
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-5
L
L
U
12/04
18
W
W
O
12/11
13
W
W
U
12/18
-4
L
L
U
12/24
-2
L
W
U
01/01
17
W
W
U
09/10
-20
L
L
U
09/14
-4
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
24
W
W
U