BUFBills
3-1
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
10 mph
20
CINBengals
1-3
TBD
Paycor Stadium
63°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
7
3
3
16
Bengals
7
3
0
10
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
221
388
Total Plays
67
64
Yards / Play
3.3
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.11
Passing Yards
139
323
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.02
Rushing Yards
82
65
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
15
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.57
-14.18
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-27
-5
Sack EPA
-5.31
-1.02
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
71
71
Penalty EPA
-4.02
-8.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+71
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
17
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
29
8
Rushing Yards / Game
5
30
EPA
EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
22
10
EPA / Rush
13
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
30
16
RZ Efficiency
22
5
Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
32
21
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29
EPA
EPA / Play
26
19
EPA / Pass
21
15
EPA / Rush
28
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
9
Interceptions / Game
13
7
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
12
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
24
RZ Efficiency
11
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U