BUFBills
5-3
18
TBD
Paycor Stadium
51°F
5 mph
24
CINBengals
4-3
TBD
Paycor Stadium
51°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
0
3
8
18
Bengals
14
7
0
3
24
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
397
Total Plays
56
67
Yards / Play
5.7
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.11
Passing Yards
251
343
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
31/44(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.29
Rushing Yards
68
54
Rush Attempts
16
22
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
58%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.12
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-5
Sack EPA
-1.58
-2.13
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
49
49
Penalty EPA
-3.59
-6.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,598
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+43.4
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.0
Home QB Adjustment
-3.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.1
Market Regression
+38.3
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
20
Yards / Game
5
31
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
5
26
EPA
EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
6
25
EPA / Rush
1
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
7
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
23
4th Down Efficiency
7
8
RZ Efficiency
4
10
Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
3
Yards / Game
23
8
Passing Yards / Game
9
13
Rushing Yards / Game
32
15
EPA
EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
15
6
EPA / Rush
15
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
32
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
1
3
Turnover EPA / Game
25
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
10
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U