BUFBills
1-8
49
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
16 mph
31
CINBengals
2-7
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
7
8
21
43
Bengals
7
18
0
0
25
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
361
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
7.5
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.33
-0.04
Passing Yards
308
228
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.18
Rushing Yards
141
133
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
50%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.15
-17.67
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-20
Sack EPA
-1.67
-0.97
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
58
57
Penalty EPA
-3.96
-9.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
25
14
Passing Yards / Game
9
10
Rushing Yards / Game
18
19
EPA
EPA / Play
29
28
EPA / Pass
28
20
EPA / Rush
23
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
31
17
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
3
RZ Efficiency
21
6
Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
28
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
8
Rushing Yards / Game
27
32
EPA
EPA / Play
19
27
EPA / Pass
17
28
EPA / Rush
31
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
24
28
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
31
4th Down Efficiency
5
29
RZ Efficiency
23
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U