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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ bengals week 11, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
1-8
49
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
16 mph
31
CINBengals
2-7
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
7
8
21
43
Bengals
7
18
0
0
25

Spread

BUF logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
449
361
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
7.5
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.33
-0.04
Passing Yards
308
228
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.18
Rushing Yards
141
133
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
50%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.15
-17.67
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-20
Sack EPA
-1.67
-0.97
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
58
57
Penalty EPA
-3.96
-9.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
+8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
12/13
-5.4
18
12/20
-3.7
25
01/03
4.6
80
09/26
2.2
63
10/03
1.7
58
10/10
1.7
59
10/24
9.8
97
10/31
-2.5
32
11/07
0.5
52
11/14
-2.5
32
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
01/09
-4.4
23
09/12
6.8
90
09/19
-3.5
26
09/26
-4.3
21
10/03
5.0
82
10/10
-1.7
39
10/24
9.9
98
10/31
-1.9
37
11/08
-1.0
43
11/14
-0.5
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Bills logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
25
14
Passing Yards / Game
9
10
Rushing Yards / Game
18
19

EPA

EPA / Play
29
28
EPA / Pass
28
20
EPA / Rush
23
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
31
17
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
3
RZ Efficiency
21
6
Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Bengals logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
23
28
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
8
Rushing Yards / Game
27
32

EPA

EPA / Play
19
27
EPA / Pass
17
28
EPA / Rush
31
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
24
28
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
31
4th Down Efficiency
5
29
RZ Efficiency
23
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
23
W
W
O
09/12
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-27
L
L
U
09/26
-8
L
W
O
10/03
-24
L
L
O
10/10
-10
L
L
O
10/24
-3
L
W
O
10/31
-3
L
W
U
11/07
-3
L
P
U
11/14
2
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
-10
L
L
O
09/12
-14
L
L
O
09/19
5
W
W
U
09/26
13
W
W
U
10/03
-3
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
O
10/24
-7
L
L
O
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/14
-6
L
W
U