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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ bengals week 11, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
4-5
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
36°F
8 mph
12
CINBengals
3-5
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
36°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
3
3
3
16
Bengals
6
6
0
0
12

Spread

BUF logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
342
300
Total Plays
63
71
Yards / Play
5.4
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.14
Passing Yards
159
207
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.23
Rushing Yards
183
93
Rush Attempts
34
27
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.40
-8.62
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-3.27
-0.53
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
75
25
Penalty EPA
-7.98
-2.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+12.9
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.3
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.8
Market Regression
-8.2
Final Difference
27.8
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Value
Ptile
01/03
2.7
71
09/11
-4.4
17
09/15
6.7
89
09/25
-2.4
31
10/02
3.0
72
10/09
-1.9
35
10/16
3.0
73
10/23
-0.9
41
10/30
0.7
54
11/07
3.0
72
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Value
Ptile
12/13
-7.2
6
09/11
-1.0
40
09/18
3.9
77
09/25
-2.2
33
09/29
1.8
63
10/09
3.3
74
10/16
4.3
80
10/23
1.7
62
10/30
1.8
63
11/14
-4.0
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Bills logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21

EPA

EPA / Play
11
22
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
1
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
5
4
Fumbles / Game
2
27
Turnover EPA / Game
30
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
16
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
10
8
Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Bengals logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
12
19
Passing Yards / Game
9
8
Rushing Yards / Game
13
29

EPA

EPA / Play
10
16
EPA / Pass
12
19
EPA / Rush
5
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
6
20
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
6
RZ Efficiency
18
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
5
W
W
U
09/11
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-6
L
L
O
09/25
15
W
W
O
10/02
16
W
W
U
10/09
11
W
W
O
10/16
29
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
O
10/30
-16
L
L
O
11/07
-6
L
L
O
CIN logo

Bengals

3-6-1
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
-2
L
P
U
09/11
1
W
W
O
09/18
-8
L
L
U
09/25
-12
L
L
O
09/29
15
W
W
U
10/09
-14
L
L
U
10/16
-18
L
L
O
10/23
14
W
W
O
10/30
0
T
L
O
11/14
-1
L
L
U