BUFBills
4-5
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
36°F
8 mph
12
CINBengals
3-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
36°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
3
3
3
16
Bengals
6
6
0
0
12
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
300
Total Plays
63
71
Yards / Play
5.4
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.14
Passing Yards
159
207
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.23
Rushing Yards
183
93
Rush Attempts
34
27
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.40
-8.62
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-3.27
-0.53
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
75
25
Penalty EPA
-7.98
-2.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+12.7
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.5
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.8
Market Regression
-8.1
Final Difference
27.2
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21
EPA
EPA / Play
11
22
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
1
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
5
4
Fumbles / Game
2
27
Turnover EPA / Game
30
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
16
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
10
8
Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
12
19
Passing Yards / Game
9
8
Rushing Yards / Game
13
29
EPA
EPA / Play
10
16
EPA / Pass
12
19
EPA / Rush
5
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
6
20
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
6
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
3-6-1
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U