BUFBills
7-5
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
3 mph
24
DENBroncos
9-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
0
14
17
Broncos
7
7
10
0
24
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
415
306
Total Plays
77
49
Yards / Play
5.4
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.00
Passing Yards
341
--
Comp/Att
38/57(67%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.32
Rushing Yards
74
133
Rush Attempts
16
29
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
15
Passing 1st downs
18
3
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
56%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.87
-10.40
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-4.38
--
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
98
--
Penalty EPA
-1.76
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+230
Home nfelo
1,697
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-20.2
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+24.3
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
17
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
2
EPA
EPA / Play
25
10
EPA / Pass
21
9
EPA / Rush
28
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
31
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
26
RZ Efficiency
30
25
Broncos Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
4
Yards / Game
5
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10
EPA
EPA / Play
7
1
EPA / Pass
5
1
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
15
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
5
10
Turnover EPA / Game
27
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
17
14
RZ Efficiency
4
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U