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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ broncos week 14, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
7-5
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
3 mph
24
DENBroncos
9-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
0
14
17
Broncos
7
7
10
0
24

Spread

BUF logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
415
306
Total Plays
77
49
Yards / Play
5.4
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.00
Passing Yards
341
--
Comp/Att
38/57(67%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.32
Rushing Yards
74
133
Rush Attempts
16
29
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
24
15
Passing 1st downs
18
3
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
56%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.87
-10.40
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-4.38
--
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
98
--
Penalty EPA
-1.76
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+230
Home nfelo
1,697
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-20.2
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+24.3
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
Value
Ptile
01/01
-3.3
29
12/29
4.7
82
10/05
2.4
68
10/12
-1.3
41
10/19
-1.7
38
10/26
1.6
62
11/09
2.0
65
11/13
-2.8
31
11/24
4.4
80
11/30
-4.2
25
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Value
Ptile
09/21
3.4
74
10/05
8.9
94
10/12
3.4
73
10/19
10.1
96
10/23
7.6
90
11/02
3.9
77
11/09
8.0
91
11/16
-0.1
49
11/23
9.8
96
11/30
-1.4
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bills logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
18
17
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
2

EPA

EPA / Play
25
10
EPA / Pass
21
9
EPA / Rush
28
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
31
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
26
RZ Efficiency
30
25
Broncos Offense vs Bills Defense
Broncos logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
4
4
Yards / Game
5
4
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10

EPA

EPA / Play
7
1
EPA / Pass
5
1
EPA / Rush
9
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
15
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
5
10
Turnover EPA / Game
27
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
17
14
RZ Efficiency
4
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-12
L
L
U
09/28
-6
L
L
U
10/05
3
W
W
U
10/12
-15
L
L
O
10/19
1
W
L
U
10/26
20
W
W
O
11/09
-4
L
L
U
11/13
-13
L
L
U
11/24
35
W
W
U
11/30
16
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-6
L
L
U
10/05
21
W
W
O
10/12
14
W
W
O
10/19
25
W
W
O
10/23
14
W
W
O
11/02
-22
L
L
O
11/09
24
W
W
O
11/16
-15
L
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/30
13
W
W
U