BUFBills
6-2
16
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
50°F
10 mph
19
CLEBrowns
2-6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
50°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
0
7
14
Browns
6
3
3
7
19
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
368
Total Plays
62
66
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.06
Passing Yards
260
221
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.13
Rushing Yards
84
147
Rush Attempts
20
26
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-17
Sack EPA
-2.45
-4.24
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
40
70
Penalty EPA
-5.37
-2.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+67.4
Base HFA
+50.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.7
Home QB Adjustment
-10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
20
Yards / Game
24
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29
EPA
EPA / Play
20
20
EPA / Pass
21
15
EPA / Rush
10
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
17
Interceptions / Game
15
10
Fumbles / Game
15
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
12
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
20
20
Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
2
Yards / Game
18
4
Passing Yards / Game
14
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
11
EPA
EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
20
5
EPA / Rush
17
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
19
Interceptions / Game
30
12
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
9
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U