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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ browns week 10, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
6-2
16
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
50°F
10 mph
19
CLEBrowns
2-6
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
50°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
0
7
14
Browns
6
3
3
7
19

Spread

BUF logo
CLE logo
3
P

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
344
368
Total Plays
62
66
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.06
Passing Yards
260
221
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.13
Rushing Yards
84
147
Rush Attempts
20
26
Yards / Rush
4.2
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-17
Sack EPA
-2.45
-4.24
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
40
70
Penalty EPA
-5.37
-2.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+68.2
Base HFA
+50.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.7
Home QB Adjustment
-10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
12/23
-3.6
24
12/30
12.0
98
09/08
0.6
56
09/15
1.1
61
09/22
0.7
57
09/29
-8.2
9
10/06
-1.1
45
10/20
0.1
53
10/27
-3.6
27
11/03
-0.6
48
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
Value
Ptile
12/23
8.0
92
12/30
2.6
67
09/08
-7.2
11
09/16
-3.4
29
09/22
-6.3
14
09/29
1.9
66
10/07
-14.4
1
10/13
-0.3
50
10/27
-2.1
38
11/03
3.4
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Bills logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
23
20
Yards / Game
24
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
7
30

EPA

EPA / Play
20
20
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
10
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
17
Interceptions / Game
15
10
Fumbles / Game
15
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
12
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
20
25
Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Browns logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
22
2
Yards / Game
22
4
Passing Yards / Game
14
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
11

EPA

EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
21
5
EPA / Rush
12
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
19
Interceptions / Game
30
12
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
9
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
14
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-12
L
W
U
12/30
25
W
W
O
09/08
1
W
W
U
09/15
14
W
W
U
09/22
4
W
L
U
09/29
-6
L
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
U
10/20
10
W
L
O
10/27
-18
L
L
O
11/03
15
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
8
W
L
P
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
-30
L
L
O
09/16
20
W
W
U
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
15
W
W
O
10/07
-28
L
L
U
10/13
-4
L
L
O
10/27
-14
L
L
U
11/03
-5
L
L
O