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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ browns week 16, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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BUF logo
BUFBills
10-4
23
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
25°F
16 mph
20
CLEBrowns
3-11
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
25°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
13
3
0
23
Browns
7
3
7
3
20

Spread

CLE logo
+10.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
259
294
Total Plays
50
64
Yards / Play
5.2
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.09
Passing Yards
95
134
Comp/Att
12/19(63%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.45
-0.50
Rushing Yards
164
160
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
5.7
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.33
+0.28
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
6
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.15
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-35
-23
Sack EPA
-3.27
-5.96
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-5.88
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market81.3%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-223
Home nfelo
1,379
Away nfelo
1,623
Home Field
+59.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-38.7
Home QB Adjustment
-34.0
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
-255.3
Model Spread
+10.5

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Value
Ptile
10/05
4.9
83
10/13
-5.1
16
10/26
1.4
61
11/02
7.7
94
11/09
2.5
68
11/16
11.9
99
11/20
-7.8
5
11/30
1.7
62
12/07
10.9
98
12/14
4.1
77
S. Sanders headshot

S. Sanders

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-34.0
Value
Ptile
11/23
-3.8
25
11/30
-3.6
26
12/07
5.9
88
12/14
-10.8
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Bills logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
5
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
14

EPA

EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
7
4
EPA / Rush
3
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
8
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
21
19
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
7
4th Down Efficiency
13
3
RZ Efficiency
6
14
Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Browns logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
31
12
Yards / Game
30
8
Passing Yards / Game
20
1
Rushing Yards / Game
27
29

EPA

EPA / Play
32
19
EPA / Pass
32
6
EPA / Rush
27
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
30
11
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
24
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
24
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-3
L
L
U
10/13
-10
L
L
U
10/26
31
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-17
L
L
U
11/16
12
W
W
O
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/30
19
W
W
U
12/07
5
W
L
O
12/14
4
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-4
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
25
W
W
O
10/26
-19
L
L
O
11/09
-7
L
L
O
11/16
-7
L
W
O
11/23
14
W
W
U
11/30
-18
L
L
U
12/07
-2
L
L
O
12/14
-28
L
L
U