BUFBills
2-3
19
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
016
ARICardinals
4-1
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bills
7
0
7
0
3
17
Cardinals
3
7
3
3
0
16
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
332
Total Plays
68
71
Yards / Play
4.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.15
Passing Yards
141
150
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
16/36(44%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.49
Rushing Yards
165
182
Rush Attempts
33
30
Yards / Rush
5.0
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.55
-10.20
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-12
-23
Sack EPA
-0.85
-6.22
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
39
67
Penalty EPA
-5.72
-6.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,421
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+14.9
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.0
Market Regression
-2.7
Final Difference
113.3
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
K. Kolb
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
19
11
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28
EPA
EPA / Play
20
2
EPA / Pass
21
2
EPA / Rush
10
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
3
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
22
3
Cardinals Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
26
Yards / Game
32
21
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
31
EPA
EPA / Play
32
28
EPA / Pass
32
15
EPA / Rush
32
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
32
20
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
6
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
31
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cardinals
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U