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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ cardinals week 6, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
2-3
19
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
16
ARICardinals
4-1
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bills
7
0
7
0
3
17
Cardinals
3
7
3
3
0
16

Spread

BUF logo
+5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
306
332
Total Plays
68
71
Yards / Play
4.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.15
Passing Yards
141
150
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
16/36(44%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.49
Rushing Yards
165
182
Rush Attempts
33
30
Yards / Rush
5.0
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.55
-10.20
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-12
-23
Sack EPA
-0.85
-6.22
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
39
67
Penalty EPA
-5.72
-6.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,421
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+14.9
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.0
Market Regression
-2.8
Final Difference
113.2
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
12/04
2.5
69
12/11
-7.8
7
12/18
-0.5
48
12/24
-0.9
46
01/01
-1.4
41
09/09
-0.8
43
09/16
3.7
73
09/23
4.4
78
09/30
-1.4
40
10/07
-4.6
22
K. Kolb headshot

K. Kolb

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Value
Ptile
10/02
-5.7
15
10/09
-9.0
3
10/23
1.7
63
10/30
-7.3
8
12/04
-0.7
46
12/11
-5.4
17
09/16
-0.3
48
09/23
3.6
72
09/30
-4.2
23
10/04
-7.8
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Bills logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
19
11
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28

EPA

EPA / Play
20
2
EPA / Pass
21
2
EPA / Rush
10
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
3
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
22
3
Cardinals Offense vs Bills Defense
Cardinals logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
31
26
Yards / Game
32
21
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
31

EPA

EPA / Play
32
28
EPA / Pass
32
15
EPA / Rush
32
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
32
20
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
6
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
31
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-6
L
L
U
12/11
-27
L
L
U
12/18
-7
L
L
O
12/24
26
W
W
O
01/01
-28
L
L
O
09/09
-20
L
L
O
09/16
18
W
W
O
09/23
10
W
W
U
09/30
-24
L
L
O
10/07
-42
L
L
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
6
W
W
U
12/11
2
W
W
O
12/18
3
W
L
P
12/24
-7
L
L
U
01/01
3
W
W
O
09/09
4
W
W
U
09/16
2
W
W
U
09/23
21
W
W
U
09/30
3
W
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U