BUFBills
5-4
24
TBD
StubHub Center
76°F
6 mph
54
LACChargers
3-6
TBD
StubHub Center
76°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
0
3
14
24
Chargers
4
27
4
7
42
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
429
Total Plays
62
73
Yards / Play
6.3
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.19
Passing Yards
220
283
Comp/Att
21/39(54%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.47
+0.35
Rushing Yards
173
146
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
7.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
11
20
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
6
0
Interceptions
5
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-29.57
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-1
Sack EPA
-6.24
-0.78
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
48
--
Penalty EPA
-5.55
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model78.1%
Spread Pick
Chargers-7.0
Expected Value
+16.3%
Cover Probability
57.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+262
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+85.5
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+116.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-112.9
Market Regression
+31.1
Final Difference
221.2
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
N. Peterman
Proj. Value
-6.1
Team Elo Adj
-112.9
No recent game data available
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
1
Yards / Game
29
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
22
10
EPA / Pass
22
3
EPA / Rush
13
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
12
5
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
19
4th Down Efficiency
30
5
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Chargers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
5
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
14
Rushing Yards / Game
24
29
EPA
EPA / Play
8
19
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
21
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
1
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
11
4th Down Efficiency
18
24
RZ Efficiency
27
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U