BUFBills
-
41
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
75°F
07
KCChiefs
-
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
75°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
6
14
7
41
Chiefs
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
213
Total Plays
66
56
Yards / Play
5.5
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.49
Passing Yards
201
105
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
2.9
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.47
Rushing Yards
163
108
Rush Attempts
39
18
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
13
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-1.17
-15.22
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-14
Sack EPA
-2.18
-3.77
Penalties
5
1
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-5.68
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+81
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-6.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.8
Market Regression
-14.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
13
Yards / Game
14
11
Passing Yards / Game
15
2
Rushing Yards / Game
14
26
EPA
EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
19
22
EPA / Rush
6
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
31
5
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
11
20
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
30
Yards / Game
27
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28
EPA
EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
21
21
EPA / Rush
31
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
23
5
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U