BUFBills
4-3
5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
45°F
5 mph
38
KCChiefs
7-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
45°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
0
0
3
Chiefs
7
21
0
10
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
266
375
Total Plays
67
61
Yards / Play
4.0
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.20
Passing Yards
133
--
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.68
+0.21
Rushing Yards
133
100
Rush Attempts
26
24
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
27%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
7
0
Interceptions
5
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.65
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-32
--
Sack EPA
-10.64
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
31
--
Penalty EPA
-3.74
--
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
30
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
18
Rushing Yards / Game
22
30
EPA
EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
27
17
EPA / Rush
21
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
30
Interceptions / Game
15
4
Fumbles / Game
28
23
Turnover EPA / Game
4
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
18
4th Down Efficiency
15
10
RZ Efficiency
20
23
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
5
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
19
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
7
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
3
7
EPA / Rush
2
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
1
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
16
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
1
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
0-0-10
O/U