BUFBills
0-6
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
51°F
13 mph
13
KCChiefs
4-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
51°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bills
0
0
3
7
0
10
Chiefs
0
7
0
3
3
13
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
414
Total Plays
84
74
Yards / Play
3.9
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.03
Passing Yards
191
140
Comp/Att
24/48(50%)
14/26(54%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.09
Rushing Yards
137
274
Rush Attempts
33
45
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
14
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
48%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
11
4
3rd Down Attempts
23
15
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.78
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-32
-12
Sack EPA
-5.25
-4.78
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-5.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+141
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,401
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
+22.3
Market Regression
-35.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
25
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
22
Rushing Yards / Game
18
16
EPA
EPA / Play
29
18
EPA / Pass
28
17
EPA / Rush
23
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
20
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
3
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
6
RZ Efficiency
21
29
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
28
Yards / Game
16
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32
EPA
EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
7
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
4
28
Fumbles / Game
15
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
29
RZ Efficiency
7
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U