BUFBills
5-5
22
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
35°F
7 mph
30
KCChiefs
5-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
35°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
10
6
6
0
22
Chiefs
0
14
10
6
30
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
415
413
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
6.1
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.22
Passing Yards
286
255
Comp/Att
21/39(54%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.26
Rushing Yards
129
158
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
42%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.22
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-4.26
-0.61
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
91
58
Penalty EPA
-6.31
-10.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+147
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+71.8
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.4
Time Adj
-11.0
Net QB Adjustment
+19.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-12.2
Market Regression
-25.4
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-12.2
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
7
Rushing Yards / Game
1
6
EPA
EPA / Play
12
5
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
2
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
8
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
11
23
Turnover EPA / Game
32
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
26
22
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
15
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
19
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
16
EPA
EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
15
15
EPA / Rush
1
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
1
6
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
30
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
2
1
RZ Efficiency
12
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U