BUFBills
5-5
16
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
62°F
9 mph
10
KCChiefs
6-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
62°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
6
3
0
16
Chiefs
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
236
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
3.9
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.32
Passing Yards
164
181
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.29
Rushing Yards
104
55
Rush Attempts
37
19
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
14
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
35%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.09
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-19
-18
Sack EPA
-4.72
-3.17
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
50
50
Penalty EPA
-4.94
-9.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+194
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+65.3
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
+11.0
Market Regression
-8.1
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
15
Yards / Game
29
29
Passing Yards / Game
29
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
28
EPA
EPA / Play
22
24
EPA / Pass
22
19
EPA / Rush
13
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
12
9
Fumbles / Game
9
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
26
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
22
18
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
29
EPA
EPA / Play
3
19
EPA / Pass
5
15
EPA / Rush
5
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
5
26
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
24
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U