BUFBills
7-2
30
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
020
INDColts
4-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
4
10
0
10
24
Colts
3
10
0
7
20
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
415
361
Total Plays
70
61
Yards / Play
5.9
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.22
Passing Yards
280
240
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.36
Rushing Yards
135
121
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.52
-23.28
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
--
-32
Sack EPA
-2.57
-12.92
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
54
25
Penalty EPA
-3.75
-2.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-112
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,632
Home Field
+42.0
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.3
Home QB Adjustment
+19.3
Away QB Adjustment
+3.0
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
12
Rushing Yards / Game
9
23
EPA
EPA / Play
2
15
EPA / Pass
3
27
EPA / Rush
3
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
25
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
1
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
29
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
2
23
Colts Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
12
Yards / Game
13
16
Passing Yards / Game
24
24
Rushing Yards / Game
8
13
EPA
EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
17
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
32
Interceptions / Game
29
10
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
4
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
14
RZ Efficiency
23
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U