BUFBills
1-1
37
TBD
FedExField
65°F
1 mph
3
WASCommanders
2-0
TBD
FedExField
65°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
10
6
0
15
31
Commanders
0
0
0
3
3
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
230
Total Plays
65
51
Yards / Play
5.9
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.56
Passing Yards
--
125
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-1.08
Rushing Yards
168
105
Rush Attempts
33
13
Yards / Rush
5.1
8.1
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
60%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.90
-23.07
Sacks
--
9
Sack Yards
--
-45
Sack EPA
--
-11.07
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-5.72
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model66.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.7
Home QB Adjustment
-10.3
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
-3.8
Final Difference
-116.8
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
32
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
19
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27
EPA
EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
1
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
26
29
Fumbles / Game
15
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
4
19
Commanders Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
3
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
6
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15
EPA
EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
10
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
2
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
6
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
6-3-1
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U