BUFBills
5-6
17
TBD
FedExField
40°F
8 mph
16
WASCommanders
5-6
TBD
FedExField
40°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
6
9
15
Commanders
3
6
7
0
16
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
282
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
6.4
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.03
Passing Yards
--
202
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.07
Rushing Yards
100
80
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
38%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.20
-7.44
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-3.33
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
101
34
Penalty EPA
-5.73
-3.55
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3
EPA
EPA / Play
24
8
EPA / Pass
31
6
EPA / Rush
16
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
21
Interceptions / Game
6
22
Fumbles / Game
8
24
Turnover EPA / Game
27
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
30
6
Commanders Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
18
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
7
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
25
EPA
EPA / Play
20
27
EPA / Pass
12
28
EPA / Rush
32
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
23
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
29
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
29
4th Down Efficiency
24
10
RZ Efficiency
20
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U