BUFBills
5-3
7
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
044
DALCowboys
4-4
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
0
0
7
Cowboys
14
14
6
4
38
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
433
Total Plays
49
61
Yards / Play
5.5
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.38
Passing Yards
136
--
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
23/26(88%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.66
+0.75
Rushing Yards
135
163
Rush Attempts
17
35
Yards / Rush
7.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
29%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
7
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-22.66
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-1.73
--
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
12
--
Penalty EPA
-2.33
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+113
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.7
Home QB Adjustment
+3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.6
Market Regression
-25.4
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
14
6
EPA
EPA / Play
17
17
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
6
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
2
12
Turnover EPA / Game
10
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
11
22
Cowboys Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
30
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
17
28
EPA
EPA / Play
11
26
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
22
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
32
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
17
12
Turnover EPA / Game
24
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
9
31
RZ Efficiency
19
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U