BUFBills
1-2
10
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
10 mph
38
MIADolphins
0-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
0
7
10
Dolphins
0
11
14
7
32
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
206
336
Total Plays
49
73
Yards / Play
4.2
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.30
+0.18
Passing Yards
160
86
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.55
-0.12
Rushing Yards
46
250
Rush Attempts
17
45
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.32
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
25
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
--
17
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
9%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
1
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.91
--
Sacks
6
6
Sack Yards
-32
-29
Sack EPA
-6.43
-7.68
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-8.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+74
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,443
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-32.4
Home QB Adjustment
-30.6
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
-8.0
Final Difference
27.4
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Edwards
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-30.6
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
25
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
29
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
28
28
EPA / Pass
27
21
EPA / Rush
17
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
14
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
22
RZ Efficiency
32
8
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
14
Yards / Game
17
19
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
3
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
8
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
1-2-7
O/U