BUFBills
5-4
8
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
15 mph
35
MIADolphins
2-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
3
0
0
6
Dolphins
14
14
1
0
29
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
242
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
3.8
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.41
+0.02
Passing Yards
204
147
Comp/Att
21/44(48%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.34
Rushing Yards
41
95
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
2.2
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
0%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
--
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.26
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-13
Sack EPA
-4.58
-2.38
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
27
50
Penalty EPA
-3.58
-4.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.1
Home QB Adjustment
-16.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
+50.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
14
4
EPA
EPA / Play
17
11
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
6
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
3
Interceptions / Game
31
17
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
11
5
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
30
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
22
1
Rushing Yards / Game
10
28
EPA
EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
17
21
EPA / Rush
20
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
32
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
19
31
RZ Efficiency
24
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Dolphins
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U