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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ dolphins week 11, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
5-4
9
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
74°F
4 mph
22
MIADolphins
5-4
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
74°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
3
3
0
9
Dolphins
3
0
7
10
20

Spread

MIA logo
-4

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
237
330
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
4.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.00
Passing Yards
183
205
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.24
Rushing Yards
54
125
Rush Attempts
19
24
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.03
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-10
-35
Sack EPA
-1.76
-5.48
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
70
30
Penalty EPA
-5.79
-3.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.8
Away QB Adjustment
+30.9
Market Regression
-18.6
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+30.9
Value
Ptile
10/09
-7.0
10
12/18
4.1
77
12/24
0.1
53
01/01
-3.3
29
12/29
4.7
82
10/05
2.4
68
10/12
-1.3
41
10/19
-1.7
38
10/26
1.6
62
11/09
2.0
65
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
Value
Ptile
12/29
-4.9
19
09/07
-2.3
34
09/14
-1.8
37
09/21
-5.5
17
09/28
5.9
85
10/12
3.2
72
10/19
6.1
87
10/26
-2.0
36
11/02
10.4
97
11/09
-1.6
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
18
19
Yards / Game
24
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
25
23

EPA

EPA / Play
25
19
EPA / Pass
21
20
EPA / Rush
28
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
10
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
10

EPA

EPA / Play
13
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
15
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
21
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-14
L
L
O
09/07
3
W
W
U
09/14
19
W
W
U
09/21
-12
L
L
U
09/28
-6
L
L
U
10/05
3
W
W
U
10/12
-15
L
L
O
10/19
1
W
L
U
10/26
20
W
W
O
11/09
-4
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-13
L
L
U
09/07
13
W
W
O
09/14
-19
L
L
U
09/21
-19
L
L
O
09/28
24
W
W
O
10/12
-3
L
L
O
10/19
13
W
W
U
10/26
14
W
W
U
11/02
37
W
W
U
11/09
-4
L
L
U