BUFBills
5-4
9
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
74°F
4 mph
22
MIADolphins
5-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
74°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
3
3
0
9
Dolphins
3
0
7
10
20
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
237
330
Total Plays
60
63
Yards / Play
4.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.00
Passing Yards
183
205
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.24
Rushing Yards
54
125
Rush Attempts
19
24
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.03
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-10
-35
Sack EPA
-1.76
-5.48
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
70
30
Penalty EPA
-5.79
-3.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.8
Away QB Adjustment
+30.9
Market Regression
-18.6
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+30.9
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
19
Yards / Game
24
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
25
23
EPA
EPA / Play
25
19
EPA / Pass
21
20
EPA / Rush
28
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
10
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
24
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
15
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
8
5
Fumbles / Game
15
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
21
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U