BUFBills
4-7
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
15 mph
21
MIADolphins
5-6
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
6
3
8
17
Dolphins
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
417
175
Total Plays
67
50
Yards / Play
6.2
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.02
Passing Yards
219
115
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.03
Rushing Yards
198
60
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
6.4
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
15
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
38%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.71
+1.02
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-22
Sack EPA
-2.81
-4.79
Penalties
13
8
Penalty Yards
120
89
Penalty EPA
-10.53
-11.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,286
Home Field
+51.4
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
+43.5
Market Regression
-31.6
Final Difference
109.8
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+43.5
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
27
Yards / Game
30
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
13
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
31
23
EPA / Pass
31
25
EPA / Rush
20
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
4
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
28
4th Down Efficiency
31
3
RZ Efficiency
16
20
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
31
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15
EPA
EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
29
2
EPA / Rush
27
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U