BUFBills
3-10
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
67°F
18 mph
14
MIADolphins
7-6
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
67°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
10
7
0
17
Dolphins
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
282
326
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
211
261
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
33/45(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.08
Rushing Yards
71
65
Rush Attempts
27
19
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.87
-3.73
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-15
Sack EPA
-2.18
-3.48
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
44
35
Penalty EPA
-4.44
-6.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+18.2
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
25
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7
EPA
EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
23
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
31
17
Turnover EPA / Game
3
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
5
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
22
32
EPA
EPA / Play
25
27
EPA / Pass
20
28
EPA / Rush
26
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
18
Interceptions / Game
24
28
Fumbles / Game
6
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
29
RZ Efficiency
14
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U