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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ dolphins week 15, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
3-10
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
67°F
18 mph
14
MIADolphins
7-6
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
67°F
18 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
10
7
0
17
Dolphins
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

BUF logo
+6

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
282
326
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.10
Passing Yards
211
261
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
33/45(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.08
Rushing Yards
71
65
Rush Attempts
27
19
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.87
-3.73
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-15
Sack EPA
-2.18
-3.48
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
44
35
Penalty EPA
-4.44
-6.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+18.2
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
Value
Ptile
10/03
1.7
58
10/10
1.7
59
10/24
9.8
97
10/31
-2.5
32
11/07
0.5
52
11/14
-2.5
32
11/21
6.0
87
11/28
-2.0
36
12/05
-2.7
30
12/12
1.8
60
C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Value
Ptile
09/19
-2.9
30
09/26
4.3
78
10/04
0.7
53
10/17
3.2
71
10/24
1.9
60
10/31
-1.0
43
11/07
-5.3
16
11/28
0.0
49
12/05
-6.6
11
12/12
-9.9
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
25
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7

EPA

EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
23
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
31
17
Turnover EPA / Game
3
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
5
RZ Efficiency
21
2
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
22
32

EPA

EPA / Play
25
27
EPA / Pass
20
28
EPA / Rush
26
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
18
Interceptions / Game
24
28
Fumbles / Game
6
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
29
RZ Efficiency
14
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-24
L
L
O
10/10
-10
L
L
O
10/24
-3
L
W
O
10/31
-3
L
W
U
11/07
-3
L
P
U
11/14
2
W
W
U
11/21
18
W
W
O
11/28
-3
L
W
U
12/05
-24
L
L
O
12/12
7
W
W
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-27
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/24
-1
L
W
O
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/07
-16
L
L
U
11/14
12
W
W
O
11/18
-16
L
L
U
11/28
16
W
W
O
12/05
-3
L
L
U
12/12
4
W
W
U