BUFBills
5-9
10
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
8 mph
24
MIADolphins
6-8
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
0
7
10
Dolphins
7
7
10
0
24
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
301
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
5.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.07
Passing Yards
227
119
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.02
Rushing Yards
154
182
Rush Attempts
28
35
Yards / Rush
5.5
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-18.12
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-11
Sack EPA
-4.96
-3.19
Penalties
11
3
Penalty Yards
93
--
Penalty EPA
-11.02
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
7
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12
EPA
EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
21
17
EPA / Rush
10
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
13
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
31
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
9
4th Down Efficiency
7
28
RZ Efficiency
22
2
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
26
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
7
Rushing Yards / Game
17
31
EPA
EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
25
15
EPA / Rush
19
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
10
20
Fumbles / Game
19
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U