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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ dolphins week 16, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
5-9
10
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
8 mph
24
MIADolphins
6-8
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
0
7
10
Dolphins
7
7
10
0
24

Spread

MIA logo
-5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
381
301
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
5.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.07
Passing Yards
227
119
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.02
Rushing Yards
154
182
Rush Attempts
28
35
Yards / Rush
5.5
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-18.12
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-11
Sack EPA
-4.96
-3.19
Penalties
11
3
Penalty Yards
93
--
Penalty EPA
-11.02
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
Value
Ptile
10/07
-4.6
22
10/14
-3.2
28
10/21
5.5
84
11/04
-0.1
50
11/11
2.6
66
11/15
-3.1
29
11/25
-4.9
20
12/02
-0.4
47
12/09
-2.0
35
12/16
-4.6
21
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
10/07
-1.9
37
10/14
2.5
65
10/28
-5.8
13
11/04
0.3
52
11/11
-8.2
5
11/15
-9.0
4
11/25
4.3
77
12/02
-3.8
26
12/09
-1.0
42
12/16
6.9
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
21
7
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12

EPA

EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
21
17
EPA / Rush
10
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
13
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
31
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
9
4th Down Efficiency
7
28
RZ Efficiency
22
2
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
27
26
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
7
Rushing Yards / Game
17
31

EPA

EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
25
15
EPA / Rush
19
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
10
20
Fumbles / Game
19
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
11
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-42
L
L
O
10/14
3
W
W
U
10/21
-1
L
L
O
11/04
-12
L
L
U
11/11
-6
L
W
O
11/15
5
W
W
U
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
16
W
W
O
12/09
-3
L
L
U
12/16
-33
L
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
4
W
W
U
10/14
3
W
L
U
10/28
21
W
W
O
11/04
-3
L
L
U
11/11
-34
L
L
U
11/15
-5
L
L
U
11/25
3
W
W
O
12/02
-7
L
P
U
12/09
-14
L
L
O
12/16
21
W
W
U