BUFBills
2-1
23
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
017
ATLFalcons
3-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
1
9
17
Falcons
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
+8
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
281
389
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.08
Passing Yards
164
242
Comp/Att
12/20(60%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.26
Rushing Yards
117
147
Rush Attempts
36
29
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
25
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
46%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-15.59
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-4.37
-8.53
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
55
45
Penalty EPA
-7.98
-11.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+180
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
-10.6
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
6
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
9
EPA
EPA / Play
22
21
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
13
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
12
30
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
17
4th Down Efficiency
30
29
RZ Efficiency
22
2
Falcons Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
16
Yards / Game
11
21
Passing Yards / Game
10
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29
EPA
EPA / Play
7
19
EPA / Pass
7
15
EPA / Rush
20
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
9
Interceptions / Game
8
7
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
27
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
24
24
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
9-1
O/U