BUFBills
4-1
14
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
024
ATLFalcons
2-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
0
7
0
14
Falcons
14
7
0
3
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
443
Total Plays
54
66
Yards / Play
5.4
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.07
Passing Yards
157
233
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.01
Rushing Yards
134
210
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
5.6
6.6
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
22%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.53
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-23
-17
Sack EPA
-5.00
-3.49
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
64
35
Penalty EPA
-8.02
-4.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-78
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,610
Home Field
+51.9
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.1
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+11.3
Market Regression
+28.2
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+3.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
M. Penix
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
19
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
18
Rushing Yards / Game
1
27
EPA
EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
4
16
EPA / Rush
2
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
22
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
20
21
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Falcons Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
14
Yards / Game
16
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
3
Rushing Yards / Game
13
31
EPA
EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
23
8
EPA / Rush
16
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
20
Interceptions / Game
3
14
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
18
4th Down Efficiency
28
23
RZ Efficiency
12
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U