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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ falcons week 6, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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BUF logo
BUFBills
4-1
14
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
24
ATLFalcons
2-2
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
0
7
0
14
Falcons
14
7
0
3
24

Spread

ATL logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
291
443
Total Plays
54
66
Yards / Play
5.4
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.07
Passing Yards
157
233
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.01
Rushing Yards
134
210
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
5.6
6.6
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
22%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.53
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-23
-17
Sack EPA
-5.00
-3.49
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
64
35
Penalty EPA
-8.02
-4.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-75
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+51.9
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.1
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+11.3
Market Regression
+28.2
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Value
Ptile
12/22
-1.0
42
12/29
5.4
81
01/12
6.9
89
01/19
3.7
74
01/26
3.0
69
09/07
13.7
100
09/14
0.1
52
09/18
4.8
83
09/28
2.8
70
10/05
4.9
83
M. Penix headshot

M. Penix

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Value
Ptile
12/22
-3.2
27
12/29
-4.1
22
01/05
2.5
66
09/07
4.6
81
09/14
-6.2
12
09/21
-7.5
7
09/28
3.5
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Falcons Defense
Bills logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
6
20
Yards / Game
5
14
Passing Yards / Game
13
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
26

EPA

EPA / Play
2
20
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
3
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
30
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
21
24
Turnover EPA / Game
19
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
6
10
Falcons Offense vs Bills Defense
Falcons logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
13
8
Passing Yards / Game
17
1
Rushing Yards / Game
5
29

EPA

EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
19
6
EPA / Rush
15
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
12
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
22
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
24
4th Down Efficiency
24
18
RZ Efficiency
9
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
26
W
W
O
01/05
-7
L
L
O
01/12
24
W
W
U
01/19
2
W
W
O
01/26
-3
L
L
O
09/07
1
W
W
O
09/14
20
W
W
U
09/18
10
W
L
O
09/28
12
W
L
O
10/05
-3
L
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
-4
L
L
U
12/08
-21
L
L
O
12/16
6
W
L
U
12/22
27
W
W
U
12/29
-6
L
L
O
01/05
-6
L
L
O
09/07
-3
L
L
U
09/14
16
W
W
U
09/21
-30
L
L
U
09/28
7
W
W
O