BUFBills
1-0
28
TBD
MetLife Stadium
79°F
5 mph
14
NYGGiants
0-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
79°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
14
0
7
28
Giants
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
370
Total Plays
67
66
Yards / Play
5.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.13
Passing Yards
237
241
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
26/45(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.19
Rushing Yards
151
129
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.5
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
38%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.86
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-9
Sack EPA
-5.06
-1.58
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
65
40
Penalty EPA
-6.03
-7.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model45.3%
Spread Pick
Giants+1.0
Expected Value
+1.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,402
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+13.7
Market Regression
+14.5
Final Difference
32.9
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
30
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
17
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20
EPA
EPA / Play
20
24
EPA / Pass
21
28
EPA / Rush
10
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
13
Interceptions / Game
15
25
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
23
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
20
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
20
17
Giants Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
2
Yards / Game
23
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
5
Rushing Yards / Game
19
11
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
27
5
EPA / Rush
11
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
19
Interceptions / Game
25
12
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
9
4th Down Efficiency
18
6
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U