BUFBills
4-1
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
65°F
15 mph
27
NYGGiants
3-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
65°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
3
0
7
24
Giants
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
414
Total Plays
56
65
Yards / Play
6.7
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.18
Passing Yards
219
--
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.44
Rushing Yards
155
122
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
6.7
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
45%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.38
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-25
--
Sack EPA
-4.50
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
75
79
Penalty EPA
-9.48
-8.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+8.6
Away QB Adjustment
+20.5
Market Regression
+20.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
20
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
15
27
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18
EPA
EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
6
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
23
Interceptions / Game
31
14
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
16
4th Down Efficiency
16
20
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Giants Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
30
Yards / Game
8
25
Passing Yards / Game
3
1
Rushing Yards / Game
29
28
EPA
EPA / Play
5
26
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
26
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
32
Interceptions / Game
12
5
Fumbles / Game
16
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
21
4th Down Efficiency
25
31
RZ Efficiency
9
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Giants
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U