BUFBills
9-7
3
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
53°F
18 mph
10
JAXJaguars
10-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
53°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
3
0
0
3
Jaguars
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
263
230
Total Plays
74
59
Yards / Play
3.6
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.11
Passing Yards
133
75
Comp/Att
18/40(45%)
12/23(52%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
3.3
EPA / Pass
-0.37
-0.35
Rushing Yards
130
155
Rush Attempts
32
34
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
8
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
39%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.74
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-12
Sack EPA
-4.36
-2.76
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
52
34
Penalty EPA
-3.12
-8.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+142
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+75.6
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
204.6
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
3
Yards / Game
29
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
6
Rushing Yards / Game
5
17
EPA
EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
22
1
EPA / Rush
13
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
12
2
Fumbles / Game
9
6
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
30
24
RZ Efficiency
22
3
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
9
21
Passing Yards / Game
28
14
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29
EPA
EPA / Play
9
19
EPA / Pass
10
15
EPA / Rush
6
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
9
7
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
24
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
24
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U