BUFBills
-
28
TBD
MetLife Stadium
74°F
1 mph
48
NYJJets
-
TBD
MetLife Stadium
74°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
7
14
28
Jets
7
14
8
7
36
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
384
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
6.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.26
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.73
Rushing Yards
195
118
Rush Attempts
26
36
Yards / Rush
7.5
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.35
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
67%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
6
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.20
-4.27
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
34
34
Penalty EPA
-5.62
-5.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.2
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
-50.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
20
Yards / Game
19
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26
EPA
EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
10
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
7
31
RZ Efficiency
22
26
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
26
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31
EPA
EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
15
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
23
Interceptions / Game
28
20
Fumbles / Game
28
20
Turnover EPA / Game
3
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
25
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U