nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ jets week 1, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

BUF logo
BUFBills
-
28
TBD
MetLife Stadium
74°F
1 mph
48
NYJJets
-
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
74°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
7
14
28
Jets
7
14
8
7
36

Spread

NYJ logo
-3

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
390
384
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
6.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.26
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.73
Rushing Yards
195
118
Rush Attempts
26
36
Yards / Rush
7.5
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.35
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
20
21
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
67%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
6
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.20
-4.27
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
34
34
Penalty EPA
-5.62
-5.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+113
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.2
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
-50.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Value
Ptile
10/30
2.8
72
11/06
-2.0
36
11/13
-4.4
22
11/20
-7.1
9
11/27
7.3
92
12/04
2.5
69
12/11
-7.8
7
12/18
-0.5
48
12/24
-0.9
46
01/01
-1.4
41
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Value
Ptile
10/23
1.2
61
11/06
0.3
54
11/13
-4.9
19
11/17
-4.4
22
11/27
1.3
62
12/04
0.1
53
12/11
4.5
79
12/18
-6.3
13
12/24
-6.7
11
01/01
-3.4
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
21
20
Yards / Game
19
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26

EPA

EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
10
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
7
31
RZ Efficiency
22
26
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
28
26
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31

EPA

EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
15
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
23
Interceptions / Game
28
20
Fumbles / Game
28
20
Turnover EPA / Game
3
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
25
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
23
W
W
U
11/06
-16
L
L
U
11/13
-37
L
L
O
11/20
-27
L
L
U
11/27
-4
L
W
O
12/04
-6
L
L
U
12/11
-27
L
L
U
12/18
-7
L
L
O
12/24
26
W
W
O
01/01
-28
L
L
O
NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
6
W
W
O
11/06
16
W
W
U
11/13
-21
L
L
O
11/17
-4
L
L
U
11/27
4
W
L
O
12/04
15
W
W
O
12/11
27
W
W
O
12/18
-26
L
L
O
12/24
-15
L
L
U
01/01
-2
L
L
U