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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ jets week 2, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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BUF logo
BUFBills
1-0
30
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
3 mph
10
NYJJets
0-1
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
10
10
3
7
30
Jets
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

BUF logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
403
154
Total Plays
71
47
Yards / Play
5.7
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.23
Passing Yards
179
54
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
10/22(45%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
2.5
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.19
Rushing Yards
224
100
Rush Attempts
43
21
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
25
11
Passing 1st downs
9
5
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
36%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
5
--
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.21
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-1
-29
Sack EPA
-0.42
-5.87
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
69
35
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-12.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-164
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,610
Home Field
+21.1
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.3
Home QB Adjustment
+7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.2
Market Regression
+39.6
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Value
Ptile
11/17
6.5
87
12/01
6.6
88
12/08
18.2
100
12/15
15.3
99
12/22
-1.0
42
12/29
5.4
81
01/12
6.9
89
01/19
3.7
74
01/26
3.0
69
09/07
13.7
100
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
Value
Ptile
12/24
3.7
74
12/31
3.1
71
01/07
-6.3
13
09/08
-1.1
41
09/15
-2.8
29
09/22
1.9
62
09/29
6.3
86
10/06
-1.9
35
10/13
0.8
53
09/07
7.7
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
5
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
15
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27

EPA

EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
7
31
EPA / Rush
3
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
21
29
Turnover EPA / Game
19
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29

EPA

EPA / Play
27
19
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
24
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
23
11
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
28
18
RZ Efficiency
31
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
25
W
W
P
12/08
-2
L
L
O
12/15
6
W
W
O
12/22
3
W
L
U
12/29
26
W
W
O
01/05
-7
L
L
O
01/12
24
W
W
U
01/19
2
W
W
O
01/26
-3
L
L
O
09/07
1
W
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/10
-25
L
L
U
11/17
-1
L
L
O
12/01
-5
L
L
O
12/08
-6
L
W
O
12/15
7
W
W
O
12/22
-10
L
L
U
12/29
-26
L
L
O
01/05
12
W
W
O
09/07
-2
L
W
O