BUFBills
1-0
30
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
3 mph
10
NYJJets
0-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
80°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
10
10
3
7
30
Jets
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
154
Total Plays
71
47
Yards / Play
5.7
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.23
Passing Yards
179
54
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
10/22(45%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
2.5
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.19
Rushing Yards
224
100
Rush Attempts
43
21
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
11
Passing 1st downs
9
5
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
36%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
5
--
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.21
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-1
-29
Sack EPA
-0.42
-5.87
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
69
35
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-12.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-170
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+21.1
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.3
Home QB Adjustment
+7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.2
Market Regression
+39.6
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
2
20
Passing Yards / Game
4
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
25
EPA
EPA / Play
1
30
EPA / Pass
5
30
EPA / Rush
1
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
10
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
12
4th Down Efficiency
7
31
RZ Efficiency
8
13
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
17
Yards / Game
21
11
Passing Yards / Game
23
1
Rushing Yards / Game
3
31
EPA
EPA / Play
16
25
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
23
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
21
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
32
9
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
25
4th Down Efficiency
14
21
RZ Efficiency
17
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U