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  1. nfelo...
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  3. bills @ jets week 6, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
1-4
16
TBD
Giants Stadium
44°F
18 mph
13
NYJJets
3-2
NYJ logo
TBD
Giants Stadium
44°F
18 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bills
3
0
10
0
3
16
Jets
3
10
0
0
0
13

Spread

BUF logo
+9

Total

UNDER
35.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
296
414
Total Plays
73
72
Yards / Play
4.1
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.17
Passing Yards
154
96
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
10/30(33%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
3.2
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.75
Rushing Yards
142
318
Rush Attempts
42
40
Yards / Rush
3.4
8.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
7
5
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
31%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
7
Interceptions
1
6
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.91
-13.48
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-23
Sack EPA
-2.11
-2.92
Penalties
8
14
Penalty Yards
64
96
Penalty EPA
-10.03
-9.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model74.6%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+9.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.4
Home QB Adjustment
-10.2
Away QB Adjustment
-12.6
Market Regression
-34.8
Final Difference
187.6
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

T. Edwards headshot

T. Edwards

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.6
Value
Ptile
11/17
-2.9
28
11/23
13.7
100
11/30
-4.0
22
12/21
1.7
63
12/28
-3.2
27
09/14
1.4
58
09/20
3.1
70
09/27
-6.2
14
10/04
-11.0
2
10/11
-3.6
27
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Value
Ptile
09/13
1.1
56
09/20
-1.1
43
09/27
-0.6
46
10/04
-10.1
2
10/12
-0.4
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
2
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7

EPA

EPA / Play
28
1
EPA / Pass
27
1
EPA / Rush
17
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
26
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
32
5
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
17
14
Yards / Game
20
19
Passing Yards / Game
32
7
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31

EPA

EPA / Play
20
13
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
6
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
16
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-2-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-7
L
L
P
12/07
-13
L
L
P
12/14
-4
L
W
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
-13
L
L
P
09/14
-1
L
W
O
09/20
13
W
W
O
09/27
-20
L
L
U
10/04
-28
L
L
O
10/11
-3
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-17
L
L
P
12/07
-10
L
L
P
12/14
4
W
L
P
12/21
-10
L
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P
09/13
17
W
W
U
09/20
7
W
W
U
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/12
-4
L
L
O