BUFBills
1-4
16
TBD
Giants Stadium
44°F
18 mph
13
NYJJets
3-2
TBD
Giants Stadium
44°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bills
3
0
10
0
3
16
Jets
3
10
0
0
0
13
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
35.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
414
Total Plays
73
72
Yards / Play
4.1
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.17
Passing Yards
154
96
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
10/30(33%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
3.2
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.75
Rushing Yards
142
318
Rush Attempts
42
40
Yards / Rush
3.4
8.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
7
5
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
31%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
7
Interceptions
1
6
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.91
-13.48
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-23
Sack EPA
-2.11
-2.92
Penalties
8
14
Penalty Yards
64
96
Penalty EPA
-10.03
-9.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model74.7%
Spread Pick
Bills+9.0
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+123
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.4
Home QB Adjustment
-10.2
Away QB Adjustment
-12.6
Market Regression
-34.8
Final Difference
188.0
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
T. Edwards
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.6
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
2
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7
EPA
EPA / Play
28
1
EPA / Pass
27
1
EPA / Rush
17
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
26
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
32
5
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
14
Yards / Game
20
19
Passing Yards / Game
32
7
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31
EPA
EPA / Play
20
13
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
6
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
16
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-2-5
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
2-3-5
O/U