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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ jets week 6, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
3-2
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
49°F
14 mph
20
NYJJets
2-3
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
49°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
13
0
3
23
Jets
10
7
3
0
20

Spread

BUF logo
-1.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
359
393
Total Plays
60
59
Yards / Play
6.0
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.10
Passing Yards
210
272
Comp/Att
19/25(76%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.32
Rushing Yards
149
121
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
45%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.89
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-5
-22
Sack EPA
-2.35
-1.11
Penalties
11
11
Penalty Yards
94
110
Penalty EPA
-9.88
-8.44

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.6
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
+21.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Value
Ptile
12/23
4.1
76
12/31
0.7
54
01/07
5.9
86
01/15
12.0
99
01/21
11.2
98
09/08
8.8
95
09/12
-0.8
43
09/23
10.7
98
09/29
-3.6
24
10/06
-3.4
25
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Value
Ptile
12/19
-2.1
36
12/25
-2.6
30
01/01
-0.4
49
01/08
-4.7
20
09/11
-7.0
11
09/09
-2.9
28
09/15
-0.6
44
09/19
6.4
86
09/29
-4.8
17
10/06
-7.3
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17

EPA

EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
3
19
EPA / Rush
3
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
17
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
2
19
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
24
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
31
13

EPA

EPA / Play
19
14
EPA / Pass
18
23
EPA / Rush
21
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
30
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
21
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
2
W
L
O
12/31
6
W
L
O
01/07
7
W
W
U
01/15
14
W
W
O
01/21
-3
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
L
O
09/12
21
W
W
U
09/23
37
W
W
O
09/29
-25
L
L
U
10/06
-3
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
24
W
W
O
12/17
-30
L
L
U
12/24
2
W
L
O
12/28
-17
L
L
O
01/07
14
W
W
U
09/09
-13
L
L
O
09/15
7
W
W
U
09/19
21
W
W
U
09/29
-1
L
L
U
10/06
-6
L
L
U