BUFBills
3-2
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
49°F
14 mph
20
NYJJets
2-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
49°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
13
0
3
23
Jets
10
7
3
0
20
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
393
Total Plays
60
59
Yards / Play
6.0
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.10
Passing Yards
210
272
Comp/Att
19/25(76%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.32
Rushing Yards
149
121
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
45%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.89
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-5
-22
Sack EPA
-2.35
-1.11
Penalties
11
11
Penalty Yards
94
110
Penalty EPA
-9.88
-8.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.6
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
+21.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17
EPA
EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
3
19
EPA / Rush
3
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
17
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
2
19
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
24
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
31
13
EPA
EPA / Play
19
14
EPA / Pass
18
23
EPA / Rush
21
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
30
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U