BUFBills
5-2
21
TBD
MetLife Stadium
68°F
11 mph
34
NYJJets
3-5
TBD
MetLife Stadium
68°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
0
14
21
Jets
7
3
14
10
34
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
307
331
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
4.4
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.07
Passing Yards
244
137
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.28
Rushing Yards
63
194
Rush Attempts
22
41
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
5
5
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-10.93
--
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-41
-3
Sack EPA
-12.23
-0.58
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
99
66
Penalty EPA
-10.90
-10.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-68
Home nfelo
1,392
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+30.9
Base HFA
+56.3
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
22
Yards / Game
29
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
5
24
EPA
EPA / Play
22
22
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
13
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
7
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
30
14
RZ Efficiency
22
21
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
16
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
22
14
Rushing Yards / Game
19
29
EPA
EPA / Play
23
19
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
23
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
9
Interceptions / Game
13
7
Fumbles / Game
23
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U