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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ jets week 9, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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BUF logo
BUFBills
6-1
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
69°F
17 mph
20
NYJJets
5-3
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
69°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
7
0
3
17
Jets
3
7
7
3
20

Spread

NYJ logo
+11

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
317
310
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
5.2
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.03
Passing Yards
183
136
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
18/25(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.37
-0.07
Rushing Yards
134
174
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.51
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
62%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.54
-5.10
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-22
-18
Sack EPA
-4.85
-6.86
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-2.41
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market82.5%
Model82.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-259
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,699
Home Field
+21.5
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.8
Home QB Adjustment
-12.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
+8.6
Final Difference
-269.4
Model Spread
+11.0

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
01/09
3.4
77
01/15
18.2
100
01/23
10.9
97
09/08
9.9
96
09/19
9.3
95
09/25
7.5
92
10/02
1.8
66
10/09
13.1
99
10/16
6.4
90
10/30
-0.5
48
Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-12.9
Value
Ptile
12/12
-5.4
17
12/19
-6.2
13
12/26
4.0
80
01/02
-1.1
45
01/09
-10.8
2
10/02
-3.2
27
10/09
-1.3
43
10/16
-6.0
13
10/23
-3.8
24
10/30
-3.0
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
3
2
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
8
17

EPA

EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
7
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
31
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
9
3
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
25
6

EPA

EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
26
12
EPA / Rush
22
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
11
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
22
RZ Efficiency
31
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
17
W
W
U
01/15
30
W
W
O
01/23
-6
L
L
O
09/08
21
W
W
U
09/19
34
W
W
O
09/25
-2
L
L
U
10/02
3
W
P
U
10/09
35
W
W
U
10/16
4
W
W
U
10/30
10
W
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-4
L
W
O
01/09
-17
L
L
U
09/11
-15
L
L
U
09/18
1
W
W
O
09/25
-15
L
L
U
10/02
4
W
W
O
10/09
23
W
W
O
10/16
17
W
W
U
10/23
7
W
W
U
10/30
-5
L
L
U