BUFBills
6-1
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
69°F
17 mph
20
NYJJets
5-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
69°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
7
0
3
17
Jets
3
7
7
3
20
Spread
+11
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
310
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
5.2
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.03
Passing Yards
183
136
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
18/25(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.37
-0.07
Rushing Yards
134
174
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.51
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
62%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.54
-5.10
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-22
-18
Sack EPA
-4.85
-6.86
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-2.41
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market82.5%
Model82.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-259
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,699
Home Field
+21.5
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.8
Home QB Adjustment
-12.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
+8.6
Final Difference
-269.4
Model Spread
+11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-12.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
2
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
8
17
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
7
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
31
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
9
3
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
25
6
EPA
EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
26
12
EPA / Rush
22
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
11
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
22
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U