BUFBills
5-3
45
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
4 mph
17
NYJJets
2-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
10
7
21
7
45
Jets
0
3
0
14
17
Spread
-13
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
489
366
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
9.1
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.41
-0.19
Passing Yards
350
296
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
27/47(57%)
Yards / Pass
12.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.68
-0.20
Rushing Yards
139
70
Rush Attempts
24
22
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
22
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
57%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
7
13
Red Zone %
86%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
6
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
5
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.06
-14.77
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-2
Sack EPA
-3.76
-1.41
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
50
69
Penalty EPA
-8.64
-7.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market85.2%
Model85.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-321
Home nfelo
1,342
Away nfelo
1,650
Home Field
+22.2
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-35.1
Home QB Adjustment
-24.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-304.1
Model Spread
+13.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
M. White
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-24.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
32
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
29
EPA
EPA / Play
2
32
EPA / Pass
5
32
EPA / Rush
1
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
12
26
RZ Efficiency
2
19
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
26
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
16
EPA
EPA / Play
25
3
EPA / Pass
29
2
EPA / Rush
13
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
29
4
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
9
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
15
RZ Efficiency
20
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U