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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ jets week 17, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
4-11
7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
5 mph
38
NYJJets
10-5
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
1
0
1
Jets
3
8
7
14
32

Spread

NYJ logo
-1

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
162
388
Total Plays
47
66
Yards / Play
3.4
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.68
-0.02
Passing Yards
125
112
Comp/Att
12/26(46%)
8/15(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.5
EPA / Pass
-1.07
-0.12
Rushing Yards
37
276
Rush Attempts
18
50
Yards / Rush
2.1
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
6
17
Passing 1st downs
5
7
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
6
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-26.46
-8.15
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-5
-7
Sack EPA
-5.98
-1.29
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
15
--
Penalty EPA
-1.80
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model63.7%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.8%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+250
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
-21.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
98.1
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

B. Brohm headshot

B. Brohm

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-21.0
Value
Ptile
12/27
-8.2
7
M. Brunell headshot

M. Brunell

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Value
Ptile
09/11
0.9
55
09/17
-6.7
9
09/24
6.6
90
10/01
8.1
95
10/08
-5.5
15
10/15
-1.6
40
10/22
4.8
82
11/05
2.3
66
11/12
-3.5
27
01/03
-4.4
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5

EPA

EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
23
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
27
25
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
21
25
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32

EPA

EPA / Play
15
27
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
6
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
10
28
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
28
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-3
L
W
O
10/31
-3
L
W
U
11/07
-3
L
P
U
11/14
2
W
W
U
11/21
18
W
W
O
11/28
-3
L
W
U
12/05
-24
L
L
O
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/19
3
W
W
U
12/26
-31
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
4
W
W
O
10/31
-9
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/14
6
W
W
O
11/21
3
W
L
O
11/25
16
W
W
U
12/06
-42
L
L
O
12/12
-4
L
L
U
12/19
5
W
W
O
12/26
-4
L
L
O