BUFBills
4-11
7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
5 mph
38
NYJJets
10-5
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
1
0
1
Jets
3
8
7
14
32
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
162
388
Total Plays
47
66
Yards / Play
3.4
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.68
-0.02
Passing Yards
125
112
Comp/Att
12/26(46%)
8/15(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.5
EPA / Pass
-1.07
-0.12
Rushing Yards
37
276
Rush Attempts
18
50
Yards / Rush
2.1
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
6
17
Passing 1st downs
5
7
Rushing 1st downs
1
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
6
1
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-26.46
-8.15
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-5
-7
Sack EPA
-5.98
-1.29
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
15
--
Penalty EPA
-1.80
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model63.7%
Spread Pick
Jets-1.0
Expected Value
+20.8%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+250
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
-21.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
98.1
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Brohm
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-21.0
Value
Ptile
M. Brunell
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
23
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
27
25
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
21
25
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
27
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
6
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
10
28
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
28
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jets
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U